Run 2026-11-04-1712-sonnet

Credit ratings: the base data claude:sonnet read 48 questions started 2026-11-04 17:12 commit e3e2dcf done

Accuracy

ConditionRepeatsAccuracy95% interval
R1 csv5 89%80–98%
R10 executed5 98%96–100%

Question by question

One mark per repeat; hover for the grader's reason, click a question for every answer to it.

QuestionR1 csvR10 executed
Q1 What was Kestrel Energy's rating on 1 January 2025? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q2 Has Kestrel Energy been downgraded in 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q3 Is Kestrel Energy's 2031 note investment grade? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q4 What is Northwind Holdings' current outlook? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q5 Whose credit risk does a holder of the Northwind Finance 2030 notes take, and how is it rated? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q6 Why is Valdoria Telecom's foreign-currency rating lower than its local-currency rating? 🟡✅🟡✅✅🟡✅🟡🟡🟡
Q7 Which issuers were downgraded in 2026? ❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Q8 Which entities were in default on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q9 As of 1 October 2026, how many distinct issuers hold an issuer rating? ❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Q10 Is Valdoria Telecom investment grade? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q11 What was Marlow Utilities' rating on 1 June 2025? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q12 What was Marlow Utilities' rating on 1 January 2024? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q13 How many times has Marlow Utilities been downgraded? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q14 What was Halden Foods' rating on 1 January 2024? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q15 What was Halden Bank's rating on 1 January 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q16 Has Marlow Utilities' rating changed since 1 January 2025? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q17 Was Orrin Bank downgraded in 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q18 Which issuers were on Rating Watch Negative on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q19 Which issuers had a Negative outlook on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q20 Is Pellam Retail in default? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q21 Which entities had an issuer rating at some point but no longer had one on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q22 Which entities have ever been in default? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q23 What is Kestrel Energy's short-term rating? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q24 Is Kestrel Energy's issuer rating investment grade? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q25 How many instruments held an investment-grade rating on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q26 What is Corvenia Power's local-currency rating? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q27 How is Corvenia Power's 2032 note rated? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q28 What is the Republic of Corvenia's foreign-currency issuer rating? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q29 What is the Republic of Valdoria's issuer rating? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q30 Which entities had a foreign-currency issuer rating exactly at their country's ceiling on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q31 Did any company have a foreign-currency issuer rating above its country's ceiling on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q32 Who is Halden Leasing's ultimate parent? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q33 Whose credit risk does a holder of the Halden Leasing 2028 notes take, and how is it rated? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q34 Is Halden Foods part of the same group as Halden Bank? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q35 How many entities are in the Halden group, the parent included? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q36 How many entities are in the Northwind group, the parent included? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q37 How many distinct legal entities does the data describe? ❌❌❌❌❌✅❌❌✅✅
Q38 Are Orrin Bank AG and Orrin Bancorp Inc the same entity? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q39 What is Northwind Holdings' current rating? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q40 How many distinct issuers domiciled in GB held an issuer rating on 1 October 2026? ❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Q41 What is Brindle Capital's current rating? ❌❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Q42 In which country is Halden Bank domiciled? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q43 How many distinct entities are domiciled in Luxembourg (LU)? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q44 Is Valdoria Telecom's 2027 note a local-currency obligation? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q45 Is Valdoria Telecom's 2027 note rated above what Valdoria's Country Ceiling allows? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q46 Does Halden Leasing have an issuer rating? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q47 How is Corvenia Power's 2034 note rated? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Q48 How many instruments held a rating on 1 October 2026? ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅

The prompts

R1 csv (9416 characters)
<!-- system: You answer questions about a credit-ratings dataset. Use only the data you are given and what it tells you about its own meaning. If a question is ambiguous, or the data cannot settle it, say so. Be concise. -->

## The data

### entities.csv
```csv
entity_id,name,lei,country,entity_type,parent_id,source_system
E01,Kestrel Energy plc,7245002OOPBG04092E43,GB,CORP,,RATINGS
E02,Northwind Holdings plc,213800PHEIYNJMHTDV74,GB,CORP,,RATINGS
E03,NORTHWIND HLDGS,213800PHEIYNJMHTDV74,GB,CORP,,RESEARCH
E04,Northwind Finance BV,213800LA5RYJLGXV2T85,NL,FINSUB,E02,RATINGS
E05,Valdoria Telecom SA,391200LESH03LMOY2U61,VD,CORP,,RATINGS
E06,Orrin Bank AG,549300AMVE3VRVG7HK43,DE,BANK,,RATINGS
E07,Pellam Retail Ltd,969500B6IUACELPI2291,GB,CORP,,RATINGS
E08,Saxby Shipping SA,969500KOTZ1JFIZSG796,GR,CORP,,RATINGS
VD,Republic of Valdoria,,VD,SOV,,RATINGS
E09,Halden Group plc,815600ASM9EHDG931T89,GB,CORP,,RATINGS
E10,Halden Bank AG,391200QYPVFF2O9K2039,DE,BANK,E09,RATINGS
E11,Halden Leasing SA,549300XBZH4ULO9MQV55,FR,FINSUB,E10,RATINGS
E12,Halden Foods Ltd,213800IJDL4OJ4DG5T19,GB,CORP,,RATINGS
E13,Orrin Bancorp Inc,815600O8X8K2F154N214,US,BANK,,RATINGS
E14,Marlow Utilities plc,3912005AH2C1I9YF8106,GB,CORP,,RATINGS
CV,Republic of Corvenia,,CV,SOV,,RATINGS
E15,Corvenia Power SA,213800PBQVHVBBH6GV02,CV,CORP,,RATINGS
E16,Brindle Capital Ltd,5493003Z3PXXR7KNFM81,GB,CORP,,QA
E17,HALDEN BANK,391200QYPVFF2O9K2039,LU,BANK,,RESEARCH
```

### instruments.csv
```csv
instrument_id,description,issuer_id,guarantor_id,seniority,currency,maturity
I01,Kestrel Energy 4.50% notes due 2030,E01,,SU,GBP,2030-03-15
I02,Kestrel Energy 6.25% notes due 2031,E01,,SUB,GBP,2031-09-30
I03,Northwind Finance 3.75% notes due 2030,E04,E02,SU,EUR,2030-05-01
I04,Valdoria Telecom 5.00% notes due 2029,E05,,SU,USD,2029-11-20
I05,Halden Leasing 2.90% notes due 2028,E11,E10,SU,EUR,2028-06-30
I06,Corvenia Power 7.10% notes due 2032,E15,,SUB,USD,2032-02-15
I07,Valdoria Telecom 4.25% notes due 2027,E05,,SU,XVD,2027-08-31
I08,Corvenia Power 6.00% notes due 2034,E15,,SU,USD,2034-09-01
```

### rating_actions.csv
```csv
action_id,date,rated_id,rating_type,ccy_basis,action,rating,outlook,watch,comment
A01,2024-03-12,E01,LTIDR,FC,AS,A-,STA,,
A02,2025-06-20,E01,LTIDR,FC,DG,BBB,STA,,weaker cash flow after asset sale
A03,2026-02-10,E01,LTIDR,FC,AF,BBB,NEG,,
A04,2026-02-10,E01,STIDR,FC,AF,F2,,,
A05,2024-03-12,I01,INST,,AS,A-,,,
A06,2025-06-20,I01,INST,,DG,BBB,,,
A07,2025-06-20,I02,INST,,DG,BB+,,,
A08,2023-11-01,E02,LTIDR,FC,AS,A,STA,,
A09,2025-09-15,E03,LTIDR,FC,AF,A,POS,,
A10,2023-11-01,I03,INST,,AS,A,,,
A11,2025-09-15,I03,INST,,AF,A,,,
A12,2025-04-01,VD,CC,,AS,BB,,,
A13,2025-04-01,E05,LTIDR,LC,AS,BBB-,STA,,
A14,2025-04-01,E05,LTIDR,FC,AS,BB,STA,,
A15,2025-04-01,I04,INST,,AS,BB,,,
A16,2024-05-01,E06,LTIDR,FC,AS,A-,STA,,
A17,2026-09-03,E06,LTIDR,FC,RW,A-,,RWN,
A18,2024-01-10,E07,LTIDR,FC,AS,BB,STA,,
A19,2026-05-12,E07,LTIDR,FC,WD,WD,,,commercial reasons
A20,2024-06-01,E08,LTIDR,FC,AS,B,STA,,
A21,2026-01-20,E08,LTIDR,FC,DG,CCC,,,
A22,2026-07-08,E08,LTIDR,FC,DG,RD,,,distressed debt exchange completed
A23,2024-03-12,I02,INST,,AS,BBB,,,
A24,2023-05-01,E09,LTIDR,FC,AS,A,STA,,
A25,2026-03-01,E09,LTIDR,FC,AF,A,NEG,,
A26,2023-05-01,E10,LTIDR,FC,AS,A-,STA,,support from parent
A27,2026-04-15,E10,LTIDR,FC,DG,BBB+,STA,,
A28,2023-06-01,I05,INST,,AS,A-,,,
A29,2026-04-15,I05,INST,,DG,BBB+,,,
A30,2024-02-01,E12,LTIDR,FC,AS,BB-,STA,,
A31,2025-08-01,E12,LTIDR,FC,UG,BB,STA,,
A32,2024-07-01,E13,LTIDR,FC,AS,BBB,STA,,
A33,2026-05-01,E14,LTIDR,FC,AF,BBB+,STA,,
A34,2023-01-15,E14,LTIDR,FC,AS,A-,STA,,
A35,2025-11-20,E14,LTIDR,FC,RW,BBB+,,RWN,
A36,2024-09-30,E14,LTIDR,FC,DG,BBB+,STA,,
A37,2024-01-01,CV,CC,,AS,A,,,
A38,2024-01-01,CV,LTIDR,FC,AS,BBB+,STA,,
A39,2024-01-01,CV,LTIDR,LC,AS,A-,STA,,
A40,2024-03-01,E15,LTIDR,LC,AS,A+,STA,,
A41,2024-03-01,E15,LTIDR,FC,AS,A,STA,,
A42,2024-03-01,I06,INST,,AS,A-,,,
A43,2024-04-01,E16,LTIDR,FC,AS,BBB-,STA,,
A44,2026-06-01,E16,LTIDR,FC,DG,BB+,STA,,
A45,2025-04-01,I07,INST,,AS,BBB-,,,
A46,2025-02-01,E11,CO,,AS,BBB,,,
A47,2026-09-01,I08,INST,,EX,A,,,
```

## Questions

Answer each question below from the data above. Start each answer on a new line with its
number in bold, like **Q1.**, give the direct answer first, then at most two sentences of
reasoning that cite the records (IDs) you relied on.

Then end with one JSON block (```json) holding the structured answer to each question listed
here, with exactly these fields, shaped like {"Q1": {"field": value}, ...}. Name entities by their record ID: the entity_id in the CSV files, or the part of the IRI after lad: in the RDF (E01, not Kestrel Energy plc).

- Q1: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q2: downgraded ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q3: investment_grade ("yes", "no" or "depends"), rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q4: outlook (an outlook)
- Q5: risk_of (a record ID), rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q7: issuers (a list of record IDs)
- Q8: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q9: count (a number)
- Q10: investment_grade ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q11: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q12: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q13: count (a number)
- Q14: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q15: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q16: changed ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q17: downgraded ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q18: issuers (a list of record IDs)
- Q19: issuers (a list of record IDs)
- Q20: in_default ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q21: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q22: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q23: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q24: investment_grade ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q25: count (a number)
- Q26: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q27: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q28: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q29: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q30: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q31: any ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q32: parent (a record ID)
- Q33: risk_of (a record ID), rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q34: same_group ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q35: count (a number)
- Q36: count (a number)
- Q37: count (a number)
- Q38: same ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q39: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q40: count (a number)
- Q41: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q42: country (a country code)
- Q43: count (a number)
- Q44: local_currency ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q45: above_ceiling ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q46: issuer_rating ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q47: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q48: count (a number)

Q1. What was Kestrel Energy's rating on 1 January 2025?
Q2. Has Kestrel Energy been downgraded in 2026?
Q3. Is Kestrel Energy's 2031 note investment grade?
Q4. What is Northwind Holdings' current outlook?
Q5. Whose credit risk does a holder of the Northwind Finance 2030 notes take, and how is it rated?
Q6. Why is Valdoria Telecom's foreign-currency rating lower than its local-currency rating?
Q7. Which issuers were downgraded in 2026?
Q8. Which entities were in default on 1 October 2026?
Q9. As of 1 October 2026, how many distinct issuers hold an issuer rating?
Q10. Is Valdoria Telecom investment grade?
Q11. What was Marlow Utilities' rating on 1 June 2025?
Q12. What was Marlow Utilities' rating on 1 January 2024?
Q13. How many times has Marlow Utilities been downgraded?
Q14. What was Halden Foods' rating on 1 January 2024?
Q15. What was Halden Bank's rating on 1 January 2026?
Q16. Has Marlow Utilities' rating changed since 1 January 2025?
Q17. Was Orrin Bank downgraded in 2026?
Q18. Which issuers were on Rating Watch Negative on 1 October 2026?
Q19. Which issuers had a Negative outlook on 1 October 2026?
Q20. Is Pellam Retail in default?
Q21. Which entities had an issuer rating at some point but no longer had one on 1 October 2026?
Q22. Which entities have ever been in default?
Q23. What is Kestrel Energy's short-term rating?
Q24. Is Kestrel Energy's issuer rating investment grade?
Q25. How many instruments held an investment-grade rating on 1 October 2026?
Q26. What is Corvenia Power's local-currency rating?
Q27. How is Corvenia Power's 2032 note rated?
Q28. What is the Republic of Corvenia's foreign-currency issuer rating?
Q29. What is the Republic of Valdoria's issuer rating?
Q30. Which entities had a foreign-currency issuer rating exactly at their country's ceiling on 1 October 2026?
Q31. Did any company have a foreign-currency issuer rating above its country's ceiling on 1 October 2026?
Q32. Who is Halden Leasing's ultimate parent?
Q33. Whose credit risk does a holder of the Halden Leasing 2028 notes take, and how is it rated?
Q34. Is Halden Foods part of the same group as Halden Bank?
Q35. How many entities are in the Halden group, the parent included?
Q36. How many entities are in the Northwind group, the parent included?
Q37. How many distinct legal entities does the data describe?
Q38. Are Orrin Bank AG and Orrin Bancorp Inc the same entity?
Q39. What is Northwind Holdings' current rating?
Q40. How many distinct issuers domiciled in GB held an issuer rating on 1 October 2026?
Q41. What is Brindle Capital's current rating?
Q42. In which country is Halden Bank domiciled?
Q43. How many distinct entities are domiciled in Luxembourg (LU)?
Q44. Is Valdoria Telecom's 2027 note a local-currency obligation?
Q45. Is Valdoria Telecom's 2027 note rated above what Valdoria's Country Ceiling allows?
Q46. Does Halden Leasing have an issuer rating?
Q47. How is Corvenia Power's 2034 note rated?
Q48. How many instruments held a rating on 1 October 2026?
R10 executed (9528 characters)
<!-- system: You answer questions about a credit-ratings dataset. Use only the data you are given and what it tells you about its own meaning. If a question is ambiguous, or the data cannot settle it, say so. Be concise. -->

## The data

These tables are the data after its rules have been applied: duplicate records merged into one entity (record_ids lists the records each entity merges), and each rating with the period it held. An empty valid_to means the rating was still in force on 1 October 2026.

### entities.csv
```csv
entity_id,name,lei,country,entity_type,parent_id,ultimate_parent_id,record_ids
CV,Republic of Corvenia,,CV,SOV,,,CV
VD,Republic of Valdoria,,VD,SOV,,,VD
E01,Kestrel Energy plc,7245002OOPBG04092E43,GB,CORP,,,E01
E02,Northwind Holdings plc,213800PHEIYNJMHTDV74,GB,CORP,,,E02 E03
E04,Northwind Finance BV,213800LA5RYJLGXV2T85,NL,FINSUB,E02,E02,E04
E05,Valdoria Telecom SA,391200LESH03LMOY2U61,VD,CORP,,,E05
E06,Orrin Bank AG,549300AMVE3VRVG7HK43,DE,BANK,,,E06
E07,Pellam Retail Ltd,969500B6IUACELPI2291,GB,CORP,,,E07
E08,Saxby Shipping SA,969500KOTZ1JFIZSG796,GR,CORP,,,E08
E09,Halden Group plc,815600ASM9EHDG931T89,GB,CORP,,,E09
E10,Halden Bank AG,391200QYPVFF2O9K2039,DE,BANK,E09,E09,E10 E17
E11,Halden Leasing SA,549300XBZH4ULO9MQV55,FR,FINSUB,E10,E09,E11
E12,Halden Foods Ltd,213800IJDL4OJ4DG5T19,GB,CORP,,,E12
E13,Orrin Bancorp Inc,815600O8X8K2F154N214,US,BANK,,,E13
E14,Marlow Utilities plc,3912005AH2C1I9YF8106,GB,CORP,,,E14
E15,Corvenia Power SA,213800PBQVHVBBH6GV02,CV,CORP,,,E15
```

### instruments.csv
```csv
instrument_id,description,issuer_id,guarantor_id,credit_risk_of,seniority,currency,local_currency,maturity
I01,Kestrel Energy 4.50% notes due 2030,E01,,E01,SU,GBP,no,2030-03-15
I02,Kestrel Energy 6.25% notes due 2031,E01,,E01,SUB,GBP,no,2031-09-30
I03,Northwind Finance 3.75% notes due 2030,E04,E02,E02,SU,EUR,no,2030-05-01
I04,Valdoria Telecom 5.00% notes due 2029,E05,,E05,SU,USD,no,2029-11-20
I05,Halden Leasing 2.90% notes due 2028,E11,E10,E10,SU,EUR,no,2028-06-30
I06,Corvenia Power 7.10% notes due 2032,E15,,E15,SUB,USD,no,2032-02-15
I07,Valdoria Telecom 4.25% notes due 2027,E05,,E05,SU,XVD,yes,2027-08-31
I08,Corvenia Power 6.00% notes due 2034,E15,,E15,SU,USD,no,2034-09-01
```

### ratings.csv
```csv
rated_id,rating_type,ccy_basis,rating,outlook,watch,action,valid_from,valid_to,action_id
CV,LTIDR,FC,BBB+,STA,,AS,2024-01-01,,A38
CV,LTIDR,LC,A-,STA,,AS,2024-01-01,,A39
E01,LTIDR,FC,A-,STA,,AS,2024-03-12,2025-06-20,A01
E01,LTIDR,FC,BBB,STA,,DG,2025-06-20,2026-02-10,A02
E01,LTIDR,FC,BBB,NEG,,AF,2026-02-10,,A03
E01,STIDR,FC,F2,,,AF,2026-02-10,,A04
E02,LTIDR,FC,A,STA,,AS,2023-11-01,2025-09-15,A08
E02,LTIDR,FC,A,POS,,AF,2025-09-15,,A09
E05,LTIDR,FC,BB,STA,,AS,2025-04-01,,A14
E05,LTIDR,LC,BBB-,STA,,AS,2025-04-01,,A13
E06,LTIDR,FC,A-,STA,,AS,2024-05-01,2026-09-03,A16
E06,LTIDR,FC,A-,,RWN,RW,2026-09-03,,A17
E07,LTIDR,FC,BB,STA,,AS,2024-01-10,2026-05-12,A18
E07,LTIDR,FC,WD,,,WD,2026-05-12,,A19
E08,LTIDR,FC,B,STA,,AS,2024-06-01,2026-01-20,A20
E08,LTIDR,FC,CCC,,,DG,2026-01-20,2026-07-08,A21
E08,LTIDR,FC,RD,,,DG,2026-07-08,,A22
E09,LTIDR,FC,A,STA,,AS,2023-05-01,2026-03-01,A24
E09,LTIDR,FC,A,NEG,,AF,2026-03-01,,A25
E10,LTIDR,FC,A-,STA,,AS,2023-05-01,2026-04-15,A26
E10,LTIDR,FC,BBB+,STA,,DG,2026-04-15,,A27
E12,LTIDR,FC,BB-,STA,,AS,2024-02-01,2025-08-01,A30
E12,LTIDR,FC,BB,STA,,UG,2025-08-01,,A31
E13,LTIDR,FC,BBB,STA,,AS,2024-07-01,,A32
E14,LTIDR,FC,A-,STA,,AS,2023-01-15,2024-09-30,A34
E14,LTIDR,FC,BBB+,STA,,DG,2024-09-30,2025-11-20,A36
E14,LTIDR,FC,BBB+,,RWN,RW,2025-11-20,2026-05-01,A35
E14,LTIDR,FC,BBB+,STA,,AF,2026-05-01,,A33
E15,LTIDR,FC,A,STA,,AS,2024-03-01,,A41
E15,LTIDR,LC,A+,STA,,AS,2024-03-01,,A40
I01,INST,,A-,,,AS,2024-03-12,2025-06-20,A05
I01,INST,,BBB,,,DG,2025-06-20,,A06
I02,INST,,BBB,,,AS,2024-03-12,2025-06-20,A23
I02,INST,,BB+,,,DG,2025-06-20,,A07
I03,INST,,A,,,AS,2023-11-01,2025-09-15,A10
I03,INST,,A,,,AF,2025-09-15,,A11
I04,INST,,BB,,,AS,2025-04-01,,A15
I05,INST,,A-,,,AS,2023-06-01,2026-04-15,A28
I05,INST,,BBB+,,,DG,2026-04-15,,A29
I06,INST,,A-,,,AS,2024-03-01,,A42
I07,INST,,BBB-,,,AS,2025-04-01,,A45
```

### ceilings.csv
```csv
country,ceiling,valid_from
CV,A,2024-01-01
VD,BB,2025-04-01
```

## Questions

Answer each question below from the data above. Start each answer on a new line with its
number in bold, like **Q1.**, give the direct answer first, then at most two sentences of
reasoning that cite the records (IDs) you relied on.

Then end with one JSON block (```json) holding the structured answer to each question listed
here, with exactly these fields, shaped like {"Q1": {"field": value}, ...}. Name entities by their record ID: the entity_id in the CSV files, or the part of the IRI after lad: in the RDF (E01, not Kestrel Energy plc).

- Q1: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q2: downgraded ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q3: investment_grade ("yes", "no" or "depends"), rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q4: outlook (an outlook)
- Q5: risk_of (a record ID), rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q7: issuers (a list of record IDs)
- Q8: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q9: count (a number)
- Q10: investment_grade ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q11: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q12: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q13: count (a number)
- Q14: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q15: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q16: changed ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q17: downgraded ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q18: issuers (a list of record IDs)
- Q19: issuers (a list of record IDs)
- Q20: in_default ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q21: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q22: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q23: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q24: investment_grade ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q25: count (a number)
- Q26: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q27: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q28: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q29: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q30: entities (a list of record IDs)
- Q31: any ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q32: parent (a record ID)
- Q33: risk_of (a record ID), rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q34: same_group ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q35: count (a number)
- Q36: count (a number)
- Q37: count (a number)
- Q38: same ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q39: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q40: count (a number)
- Q41: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q42: country (a country code)
- Q43: count (a number)
- Q44: local_currency ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q45: above_ceiling ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q46: issuer_rating ("yes", "no" or "depends")
- Q47: rating (a rating, or "none")
- Q48: count (a number)

Q1. What was Kestrel Energy's rating on 1 January 2025?
Q2. Has Kestrel Energy been downgraded in 2026?
Q3. Is Kestrel Energy's 2031 note investment grade?
Q4. What is Northwind Holdings' current outlook?
Q5. Whose credit risk does a holder of the Northwind Finance 2030 notes take, and how is it rated?
Q6. Why is Valdoria Telecom's foreign-currency rating lower than its local-currency rating?
Q7. Which issuers were downgraded in 2026?
Q8. Which entities were in default on 1 October 2026?
Q9. As of 1 October 2026, how many distinct issuers hold an issuer rating?
Q10. Is Valdoria Telecom investment grade?
Q11. What was Marlow Utilities' rating on 1 June 2025?
Q12. What was Marlow Utilities' rating on 1 January 2024?
Q13. How many times has Marlow Utilities been downgraded?
Q14. What was Halden Foods' rating on 1 January 2024?
Q15. What was Halden Bank's rating on 1 January 2026?
Q16. Has Marlow Utilities' rating changed since 1 January 2025?
Q17. Was Orrin Bank downgraded in 2026?
Q18. Which issuers were on Rating Watch Negative on 1 October 2026?
Q19. Which issuers had a Negative outlook on 1 October 2026?
Q20. Is Pellam Retail in default?
Q21. Which entities had an issuer rating at some point but no longer had one on 1 October 2026?
Q22. Which entities have ever been in default?
Q23. What is Kestrel Energy's short-term rating?
Q24. Is Kestrel Energy's issuer rating investment grade?
Q25. How many instruments held an investment-grade rating on 1 October 2026?
Q26. What is Corvenia Power's local-currency rating?
Q27. How is Corvenia Power's 2032 note rated?
Q28. What is the Republic of Corvenia's foreign-currency issuer rating?
Q29. What is the Republic of Valdoria's issuer rating?
Q30. Which entities had a foreign-currency issuer rating exactly at their country's ceiling on 1 October 2026?
Q31. Did any company have a foreign-currency issuer rating above its country's ceiling on 1 October 2026?
Q32. Who is Halden Leasing's ultimate parent?
Q33. Whose credit risk does a holder of the Halden Leasing 2028 notes take, and how is it rated?
Q34. Is Halden Foods part of the same group as Halden Bank?
Q35. How many entities are in the Halden group, the parent included?
Q36. How many entities are in the Northwind group, the parent included?
Q37. How many distinct legal entities does the data describe?
Q38. Are Orrin Bank AG and Orrin Bancorp Inc the same entity?
Q39. What is Northwind Holdings' current rating?
Q40. How many distinct issuers domiciled in GB held an issuer rating on 1 October 2026?
Q41. What is Brindle Capital's current rating?
Q42. In which country is Halden Bank domiciled?
Q43. How many distinct entities are domiciled in Luxembourg (LU)?
Q44. Is Valdoria Telecom's 2027 note a local-currency obligation?
Q45. Is Valdoria Telecom's 2027 note rated above what Valdoria's Country Ceiling allows?
Q46. Does Halden Leasing have an issuer rating?
Q47. How is Corvenia Power's 2034 note rated?
Q48. How many instruments held a rating on 1 October 2026?
The report, as report.md

credit: claude:sonnet, 2026-11-04 17:12

48 questions, 5 repeats per condition. Correct = 1, partial = ½. Graded by code where a question has a typed key, by claude:sonnet with a checklist otherwise.

Accuracy

Condition Accuracy 95% interval Questions unstable across repeats
R1 csv 89% 80% to 98% 1 of 48
R10 executed 98% 96% to 100% 2 of 48

Against R1 csv, question by question

Condition Difference 95% interval
R10 executed +9 points +2 to +18

By question

Question Graded by R1 csv R10 executed
Q1 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q2 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q3 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q4 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q5 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q6 llm 🟡 ✅ 🟡 ✅ ✅ 🟡 ✅ 🟡 🟡 🟡
Q7 code ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q8 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q9 code ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q10 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q11 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q12 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q13 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q14 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q15 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q16 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q17 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q18 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q19 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q20 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q21 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q22 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q23 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q24 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q25 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q26 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q27 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q28 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q29 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q30 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q31 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q32 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q33 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q34 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q35 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q36 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q37 code ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅
Q38 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q39 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q40 code ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q41 code ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q42 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q43 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q44 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q45 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q46 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q47 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Q48 code ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Lists, with partial credit

The 7 questions answered with a list of entities: strict accuracy (the whole list right) against the mean F1 of the lists given, which credits a list that is nearly right.

Condition Strict Mean F1
R1 csv 86% 97%
R10 executed 100% 100%

The checklist grader agreed with itself on 8 of 10 answers graded twice.

Why each miss was marked

Q6. Why is Valdoria Telecom's foreign-currency rating lower than its local-currency rating?

  • R1 csv run 1: Names the BB Country Ceiling as capping foreign-currency ratings, but does not say it doesn't cap local-currency ratings (only implied by the BBB- local rating).
  • R1 csv run 3: Identifies the BB country ceiling as likely capping the FC rating, but hedges that the data states no reason and does not explicitly say the ceiling applies to FC and not LC ratings.
  • R10 executed run 1: Names the BB Country Ceiling as consistent with the FC rating, but hedges that no reason is stated and never says the ceiling caps foreign-currency but not local-currency ratings.
  • R10 executed run 3: Identifies the BB country ceiling matching the FC rating, but hedges that no cause is stated and never says the ceiling caps only foreign-currency ratings, not local-currency ones.
  • R10 executed run 4: Names the BB country ceiling as consistent with the FC rating but hedges ('data doesn't state a reason') and never says the ceiling caps FC and not LC ratings.
  • R10 executed run 5: Notes the BB ceiling and that FC sits at it, but says no reason is stated and never states that the ceiling caps FC and not LC ratings, so it does not name the ceiling as the cause.

Q7. Which issuers were downgraded in 2026?

  • R1 csv run 1: issuers: expected ['E08', 'E10'], got ['E08', 'E10', 'E16']
  • R1 csv run 2: issuers: expected ['E08', 'E10'], got ['E08', 'E10', 'E16']
  • R1 csv run 3: issuers: expected ['E08', 'E10'], got ['E08', 'E10', 'E16']
  • R1 csv run 4: issuers: expected ['E08', 'E10'], got ['E08', 'E10', 'E16']
  • R1 csv run 5: issuers: expected ['E08', 'E10'], got ['E08', 'E10', 'E16']

Q9. As of 1 October 2026, how many distinct issuers hold an issuer rating?

  • R1 csv run 1: count: expected 12, got 13
  • R1 csv run 2: count: expected 12, got 13
  • R1 csv run 3: count: expected 12, got 13
  • R1 csv run 4: count: expected 12, got 13
  • R1 csv run 5: count: expected 12, got 13

Q37. How many distinct legal entities does the data describe?

  • R1 csv run 1: count: expected 16, got 17
  • R1 csv run 2: count: expected 16, got 17
  • R1 csv run 3: count: expected 16, got 17
  • R1 csv run 4: count: expected 16, got 17
  • R1 csv run 5: count: expected 16, got 17
  • R10 executed run 2: count: expected 16, got 15
  • R10 executed run 3: count: expected 16, got 15

Q40. How many distinct issuers domiciled in GB held an issuer rating on 1 October 2026?

  • R1 csv run 1: count: expected 5, got 6
  • R1 csv run 2: count: expected 5, got 6
  • R1 csv run 3: count: expected 5, got 6
  • R1 csv run 4: count: expected 5, got 6
  • R1 csv run 5: count: expected 5, got 6

Q41. What is Brindle Capital's current rating?

  • R1 csv run 1: rating: expected none, got BB+
  • R1 csv run 2: rating: expected none, got BB+
  • R1 csv run 3: rating: expected none, got BB+
  • R1 csv run 4: rating: expected none, got BB+
  • R1 csv run 5: rating: expected none, got BB+