Q18, run 2026-11-04-1738-sonnet

Which issuers were on Rating Watch Negative on 1 October 2026?

Tests: Watch over time: Marlow's Watch ended with its 2026 affirmation.

Expected: issuers = ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1039', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323']

✅ R1 csv run 1 graded by code

32 issuers, listed in the JSON, where the latest action was a Rating Watch Negative (RW) not later resolved by another action. This includes E06 (A17).

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1006", "E1013", "E1019", "E1037", "E1039", "E1059", "E1061", "E1066", "E1088", "E1098", "E1099", "E1109", "E1126", "E1132", "E1133", "E1146", "E1168", "E1181", "E1194", "E1203", "E1209", "E1238", "E1242", "E1260", "E1264", "E1266", "E1267", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323"]}

✅ R1 csv run 2 graded by code

32 entities were on Rating Watch Negative, listed in the JSON. This includes E1019 and E1059, where only the local-currency rating is on watch, and excludes entities whose watch was later resolved (e.g. E14 by A33).

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1006", "E1194", "E1203", "E1133", "E1088", "E1181", "E1264", "E1168", "E1019", "E1260", "E1037", "E1013", "E1099", "E1098", "E1109", "E1066", "E1132", "E1146", "E1209", "E1266", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323", "E1126", "E1061", "E1238", "E1059"]}

✅ R1 csv run 3 graded by code

32 issuers were on Rating Watch Negative on 2026-10-01 (list in the JSON). E1019 and E1059 are included on the strength of their local-currency watches.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1126", "E1088", "E1146", "E1266", "E1013", "E1317", "E1099", "E1006", "E1264", "E1203", "E1133", "E1132", "E1323", "E1260", "E1168", "E1109", "E1238", "E1209", "E1037", "E1061", "E1066", "E1098", "E1297", "E1181", "E1314", "E1194", "E1019", "E1059"]}

✅ R1 csv run 4 graded by code

32 issuers have a Rating Watch Negative as their latest action (list in the JSON). E1019 and E1059 are on watch on their local-currency ratings only.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1194", "E1203", "E1133", "E1019", "E1088", "E1099", "E1109", "E1132", "E1264", "E1260", "E1168", "E1209", "E1098", "E1181", "E1066", "E1006", "E1037", "E1061", "E1126", "E1238", "E1266", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323", "E1146", "E1013", "E1059"]}

❌ R1 csv run 5 graded by code

On Rating Watch Negative on 1 October 2026: E06 and 30 others, listed in the JSON, where the latest watch was never resolved or withdrawn. Several of these watches date from 2022–2025, so they may be stale.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1006", "E1194", "E1203", "E1133", "E1088", "E1099", "E1264", "E1066", "E1109", "E1181", "E1146", "E1168", "E1132", "E1260", "E1098", "E1317", "E1314", "E1126", "E1013", "E1266", "E1297", "E1323", "E1061", "E1238", "E1037", "E1059", "E1019"]}

Why: issuers: expected ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1039', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323'], got ['E06', 'E1267', 'E1242', 'E1039', 'E1006', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1133', 'E1088', 'E1099', 'E1264', 'E1066', 'E1109', 'E1181', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1132', 'E1260', 'E1098', 'E1317', 'E1314', 'E1126', 'E1013', 'E1266', 'E1297', 'E1323', 'E1061', 'E1238', 'E1037', 'E1059', 'E1019']

✅ R4 csv+markdown run 1 graded by code

32 issuers have a latest action that is a Watch, listed in the JSON. E1059 and E1019 are on Watch only on their LC rating (A1132 and A1042).

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1194", "E1203", "E1133", "E1006", "E1088", "E1181", "E1099", "E1109", "E1168", "E1209", "E1264", "E1260", "E1266", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323", "E1126", "E1059", "E1019", "E1037", "E1066", "E1061", "E1013", "E1098", "E1132", "E1146", "E1238"]}

✅ R4 csv+markdown run 2 graded by code

32 issuers were on RWN, which means their latest action was an RW. The IDs are in the JSON.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1088", "E1194", "E1203", "E1133", "E1006", "E1099", "E1168", "E1019", "E1013", "E1037", "E1059", "E1066", "E1061", "E1098", "E1109", "E1264", "E1260", "E1126", "E1132", "E1146", "E1181", "E1209", "E1238", "E1266", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323"]}

✅ R4 csv+markdown run 3 graded by code

32 issuers. This takes each issuer's latest long-term action on or before 2026-10-01 where it was a Rating Watch Negative placement. I included E1019 and E1059, whose local-currency rating is the one on watch. The IDs are in the JSON.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1006", "E1088", "E1133", "E1194", "E1203", "E1013", "E1019", "E1059", "E1099", "E1061", "E1109", "E1066", "E1098", "E1132", "E1126", "E1181", "E1260", "E1264", "E1266", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323", "E1168", "E1238", "E1037", "E1209", "E1146"]}

❌ R4 csv+markdown run 4 graded by code

32 issuers have a latest action that is a Rating Watch Negative placement. Where two bases exist, I counted the issuer if the latest FC or LC action is on Watch. E1210 is reported as E1209, its RATINGS record.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1088", "E1194", "E1203", "E1133", "E1006", "E1264", "E1099", "E1168", "E1019", "E1209", "E1109", "E1260", "E1181", "E1146", "E1013", "E1037", "E1066", "E1061", "E1059", "E1098", "E1126", "E1238", "E1266", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323"]}

Why: issuers: expected ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1039', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323'], got ['E06', 'E1267', 'E1242', 'E1039', 'E1088', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1133', 'E1006', 'E1264', 'E1099', 'E1168', 'E1019', 'E1209', 'E1109', 'E1260', 'E1181', 'E1146', 'E1013', 'E1037', 'E1066', 'E1061', 'E1059', 'E1098', 'E1126', 'E1238', 'E1266', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323']

✅ R4 csv+markdown run 5 graded by code

32 issuers were on RWN on 2026-10-01 (see the JSON list). I counted E1019 and E1059 because one of their currency-basis ratings is on RWN; if only the headline foreign-currency rating counts, drop those two.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1267", "E1242", "E1039", "E1194", "E1203", "E1133", "E1088", "E1006", "E1019", "E1059", "E1264", "E1260", "E1013", "E1132", "E1109", "E1099", "E1126", "E1098", "E1146", "E1168", "E1181", "E1209", "E1266", "E1238", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323", "E1066", "E1061", "E1037"]}

❌ R10 executed run 1 graded by code

31 issuers were on RWN on 1 Oct 2026 (listed in the JSON). E1019, E1059, E1039, E1126 and E1194 are included because they carry open RWN rows on one rating type.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1006", "E1013", "E1019", "E1039", "E1059", "E1061", "E1066", "E1088", "E1098", "E1099", "E1109", "E1126", "E1132", "E1133", "E1146", "E1168", "E1181", "E1194", "E1203", "E1209", "E1238", "E1242", "E1260", "E1264", "E1266", "E1267", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323"]}

Why: issuers: expected ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1039', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323'], got ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1039', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323']

❌ R10 executed run 2 graded by code

31 issuers had an open RWN on 1 Oct 2026. The list is in the JSON.

JSON: {"issuers": ["E06", "E1006", "E1013", "E1019", "E1037", "E1059", "E1061", "E1066", "E1088", "E1098", "E1099", "E1109", "E1126", "E1132", "E1133", "E1146", "E1168", "E1181", "E1194", "E1203", "E1209", "E1238", "E1242", "E1260", "E1264", "E1266", "E1267", "E1297", "E1314", "E1317", "E1323"]}

Why: issuers: expected ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1039', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323'], got ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323']

✅ R10 executed run 3 graded by code

32 entities were on Rating Watch Negative; they are listed in the JSON. This uses rows with watch = RWN and no end date, including foreign-currency rows and local-currency-only cases (E1019, E1059).

✅ R10 executed run 4 graded by code

32 issuers had an open RWN on 2026-10-01 (listed in the JSON). E1019 and E1059 are on watch only for their local-currency ratings.

❌ R10 executed run 5 graded by code

31 issuers (listed in the JSON), each with a current row showing a Rating Watch Negative status. E1019, E1059 and E1037 qualify through their local-currency rows or an old open watch.

Why: issuers: expected ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1039', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323'], got ['E06', 'E1006', 'E1013', 'E1019', 'E1037', 'E1059', 'E1061', 'E1066', 'E1088', 'E1098', 'E1099', 'E1109', 'E1126', 'E1132', 'E1133', 'E1146', 'E1168', 'E1181', 'E1194', 'E1203', 'E1209', 'E1238', 'E1242', 'E1260', 'E1264', 'E1266', 'E1267', 'E1297', 'E1314', 'E1317', 'E1323']